Afghanistan Economic Outlook

February 2025

Afghanistan Economic Outlook, is a creative initiative of the Afghanistan Economic and Legal Studies Organization (AELSO) which reflects most important & the latest economic events that happened during a month in Afghanistan.

By reading this economic newsletter, that has designed in three languages (Pashto, Dari & English), you can get a wider overview of Afghanistan’s economic situation.

Afghanistan exports $518 million in dried fruit over past 10 months

Afghanistan has exported dried fruit worth $518 million to various countries over the past ten months, Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI) said.

ACCI officials said most of these exports have been of pine nuts, with a large portion being exported to China and other countries.

Khan Jan Alkozai, a member of ACCI, said: “Dried fruit worth $518 million has been exported, particularly pine nuts, most of which have been transmitted to China and some to Pakistan.”

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce stated that pine nuts exports reached 970 tons last year, valued at $12 million.

Officials from the ministry added that most of the exports are directed to neighboring and regional countries.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economy officials said they are working on new plans to develop exports and find new markets for Afghan products daily.

Afghanistan’s main export items include minerals, cotton, medicinal plants, fresh and dried fruits, carpets, and saffron.

Over 1,500 emerald mines discovered in Panjshir

Local officials in Panjshir have announced the discovery of over 1,600 emerald mines in the province, with extraction currently underway at 600 sites.

Over the past year, the extraction of emeralds from 600 mines in Panjshir has yielded 100,000 carats, valued at approximately $6.9 million.

Economic experts believe that increased investment in large-scale mining could create tens of thousands of direct and indirect jobs, helping to reduce unemployment.

Meanwhile, Panjshir residents are calling on the de facto government to expand mining contracts in the province, highlighting the area’s wealth in emeralds, iron, lead, zinc, and gold.

Afghanistan transports 3.2 million metric tons via railways this year

Mohammad Ashraf Haqshenas, spokesperson for the Ministry of Public Works, says since the beginning of this current solar year, about 3.2 million metric tons of commercial goods have been transported through the country’s railway lines.

Haqshenas stated that these exports have seen a significant increase compared to the same period last year, and the ministry is working to provide more facilities for the private sector in this area.

“Approximately 3.2 million metric tons of goods have been transported through four ports. The Ministry of Public Works is striving to provide greater convenience to national traders and citizens,” he said.

Meanwhile, officials from the Chamber of Commerce and Investment have stated that railway lines can play a vital role in the country’s economic development.

They added that in international trade, rail transport is cheaper than shipping, and this sector should be given serious attention in the country.

Economic experts also believe that the expansion of railways in the country can provide more convenience for traders in exports and imports.

Currently, Afghanistan has direct railway connections through four ports with Uzbekistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, and indirect connections with China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Turkey.

Over 4,000 Cargo Trucks Stranded on Both Sides of Torkham

The closure of the Torkham crossing has resulted in over 4,000 Afghan and Pakistani cargo trucks being stranded, causing significant losses to traders in both countries.

Khanjan Alokozai, the head of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Chamber of Commerce, told media that more than 150 Afghan commercial trucks had to be returned to Pakistan due to the spoilage of goods.

Alokozai said: “On a normal day, around 800 cargo trucks pass through the Torkham crossing in both directions. Now, after six days of closure, more than 4,000 trucks are stranded on both sides.”

Torkham is a crucial trade and transit route between Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, it has been closed by Pakistan for nearly a week, halting all movement.

Some traders are urging authorities on both sides to take immediate action to resolve the issue. According to traders, some of their export goods have already perished.

“We are currently using alternative routes for imports and exports, but the costs are extremely high. We urge the leadership of both countries to facilitate transit not only at Torkham but also at Ghulam Khan, Dand-e-Patan, and Kharlachi crossings,” Omid Haidari, a businessman, told.

“Hundreds of containers carrying essential goods such as fruits and vegetables are stuck in Pakistan, while our export goods are also stranded in Afghanistan. With Ramadan approaching, the people of Afghanistan need these essential supplies,” said Zalmai Azimi, another trader.

Pakistan closed the Torkham crossing last Friday after Afghan forces began constructing facilities on the Afghan side of the Durand Line.

Afghanistan-Russia Trade Declines Sharply

During this time, Afghanistan exported goods worth $3 million to Russia while importing $217 million worth of goods from Russia.

According to information from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, trade between Afghanistan and Russia has seen a significant decline in the past ten months compared to the previous year.

The ministry stated that in the past ten months, trade with Russia amounted to $220 million, whereas this figure had exceeded $322 million in the same period last year.

During this time, Afghanistan exported goods worth $3 million to Russia while importing $217 million worth of goods from Russia.

Meanwhile, the Chamber of Commerce and Investment has emphasized resolving trade-related challenges between Afghanistan and Russia to strengthen commercial ties.

“The de facto government and the Chamber of Commerce and Investment are working to resolve agreements, transit, and transportation issues so that we can directly transport our export goods, especially Afghanistan’s fresh and dried fruits, to the Russian market, particularly to Moscow,” said Mirzaman Popal, the acting head of administration and finance at the Chamber of Commerce and Investment.

Some traders also urge the de facto government to address trade-related challenges with Russia.

“We urge the leadership of both countries to work on enhancing imports and exports, as this can bring greater stability to the people of both nations, “said Omid Haidari, a businessman.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Afghanistan’s exports to Russia in the past ten months included raisins, minerals, dried apricots, and pressure cookers, while imports from Russia consisted of petroleum products, flour, raw materials for factories, and oil.

Afghan Products Showcased at Gulfood Exhibition in Dubai

The Gulfood exhibition is the world’s largest gathering of food and beverage industry professionals, held annually in Dubai since 1987.

The international “Gulfood” exhibition, held for three days in Dubai, featured food industry products from various countries, including Afghanistan.

Afghan products such as dried and fresh fruits, saffron, and beverages were displayed in ten booths at the exhibition.

Several Afghan participants showcasing agricultural and domestic products at the event said that the exhibition provides a significant opportunity for Afghan products to enter global markets.

Abdul Wahid, an Afghan businessman, said: “Each booth at this exhibition costs at least $15,000, and there is no exhibition more renowned than Gulfood in the world.”

Ismail Naseri, another Afghan businessman, said: “This exhibition is a major global event that features a dedicated section for Afghanistan every year. It is highly rewarding for Afghan agricultural products.”

The Gulfood exhibition is the world’s largest gathering of food and beverage industry professionals, held annually in Dubai since 1987.

Jeff Grieco, the president of the Afghan American Chamber of Commerce, who attended this year’s Gulfood exhibition, praised the interest of various countries, including the United States, in Afghan dried and fresh fruits, especially dates and raisins.

“We’re seeing more interest in the US market for Afghan raisins and dates, which are world class. They also sell pomegranates to major pomegranate juice manufacturers in the United States and Europe now as well. So the Afghans have made tremendous strides. We’re very proud of the success that they have achieved and we’re hoping that they will continue to expand their export markets to the US, Europe, Turkey and elsewhere,” Greico said.

Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce has said that Afghan agricultural products and domestic industries, including carpets, have played a significant role in all international exhibitions held in neighboring and regional countries.

Afghanistan and Turkmenistan Sign $7M Railway Deal to Boost Connectivity

Mohammad Ishaq Sahibzada, deputy of railways at the Ministry of Public Works, signed a contract worth $7 million during his visit to Turkmenistan for the development of the Torghundi-Herat railway.

Additionally, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan signed agreements for completing the remaining 10 kilometers of the Aqina- Andkhoi railway and conducting a detailed survey and design for 55 kilometers of the Andkhoi–Sheberghan railway.

During his meeting with the head of Turkmenistan’s railway authority, Sahibzada emphasized that the construction, connection, and standardization of Afghanistan’s railway network is a key priority for the de facto government.

“Three agreements were signed during this visit: the first for the expansion of the Torghundi-Herat station worth $7 million, the second for completing the remaining 10 km of the Aqina-Andkhoi railway, and the third for the survey and detailed design of the 55 km Andkhoi-Sheberghan railway,” stated Mohammad Ashraf Haqshenas, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Public Works.

Sahibzada traveled to Turkmenistan to strengthen railway cooperation.

Meanwhile, economic experts view the expansion of Afghanistan’s railway network as a key factor in connecting the country to the region and stress the need for greater private sector involvement in this sector.

Abdul Zuhoor Mudaber, an economic analyst, highlighted the significance of railways: “The railway’s critical role in economic development, particularly in Afghanistan, can turn the country into a regional and even Asian trade hub.”

“If we connect to the railway network, our dependence on Pakistan will decrease, and we will be able to export and import goods to Afghanistan’s provinces much faster,” stated, Abdul Naseer Rashtia Another economic expert.

The Deputy Minister of Railways previously traveled to Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkey to enhance bilateral relations and railway cooperation with neighboring and regional countries

Rising prices, unemployment cast shadow over Ramadan in Kabul

As the holy month of Ramadan begins, many residents of Kabul say they are struggling with soaring prices, widespread unemployment, and economic hardship, making it increasingly difficult to afford even basic necessities.

While markets are crowded with shoppers, many are there only to look, not to buy, as their purchasing power remains weak.

“The shopkeepers are busy selling, the buyers are busy purchasing, and those who are unemployed just wander the markets,” said one Kabul resident.

This year, Ramadan comes under the shadow of deepening poverty. Many Afghans say they barely have enough food for one meal a day.

“The prices in our country are extremely high,” said another Kabul resident. “There’s no work, no jobs, and everything is expensive.”

Reports from the United Nations confirm that food prices have remained high, particularly after the reduction of international aid. The U.N. estimates that 23 million Afghans need humanitarian assistance this year, with millions facing severe hunger.

“I had a very difficult winter,” said another resident. “I had no fuel for heating. Prices were high. My children are sick now, and I can’t afford their treatment.”

While many Afghans struggle to secure basic necessities, the Taliban continue to claim economic improvement. However, the U.N. warns that Afghanistan remains the world’s second-worst humanitarian crisis, and without sustained aid, conditions will only worsen.

Report warns Afghanistan faces 7% economic decline amid US aid cuts

Afghanistan is expected to suffer a 7% economic setback due to reduced U.S. aid, according to a new report by the Center for Global Development (CGD).

The report identifies Afghanistan as one of eight countries most dependent on U.S. assistance, with more than one-fifth of its foreign aid coming from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Prior to the cuts, USAID accounted for 35% of all international aid to Afghanistan.

The United States has provided more than $3 billion in aid to Afghanistan over the past three years, making it the country’s largest financial donor. However, with aid now significantly reduced, Afghanistan is among the nations most vulnerable to economic shocks.

CGD’s report highlights that out of 26 low-income countries, eight—including South Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan—rely on USAID funding for more than 20% of their foreign aid.

Afghanistan ranks third among the hardest-hit economies, facing a 7% potential economic contraction due to cuts in U.S. assistance.

In a separate report, the USAID Office of Inspector General (OIG) stressed that heightened security risks—particularly in countries with terrorist groups such as ISIS—necessitate enhanced vetting of aid recipients to prevent U.S. taxpayer funds from being misused.

The OIG report further noted that President Donald J. Trump’s January 24 executive order suspended all third-party monitoring of U.S. aid programs, including those in high-risk regions like Afghanistan. The move halted oversight efforts in Ukraine, Ethiopia, Haiti, Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, Syria, and Venezuela, impacting key humanitarian aid operations.

Following the report’s release, Reuters reported that Trump dismissed USAID’s inspector general, further raising concerns about transparency and oversight of aid programs.

The cuts have disrupted or halted several United Nations humanitarian programs in Afghanistan, forcing dozens of aid organizations to shut down. Many Afghans report worsening economic conditions as foreign assistance diminishes.

A recent Amu TV analysis found that since Trump’s return to office in 2025, the U.S. has not provided any funding to Afghanistan through the United Nations, despite a previous commitment of $234 million for humanitarian programs.

More women drawn to online businesses

The Afghanistan Women’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AWCCI) says more females are joining online businesses.

Women entrepreneurs involved in online businesses say they are largely satisfied with their work.

Following the political changes in the country in 2021, the number of businesswomen and female investors has seen a significant increase.

Shakiba Fazli, one of the women entrepreneurs in Kabul, told; she had been working in the field of women’s handicrafts for the past five years.

Over the last two years, Fazli said, she had also ventured into online business, selling a variety of products.

She shares her products on social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and others, through which her customers place orders.

Saadia Hafizi, another female entrepreneur, says she has been working in the handicraft sector for seven years. For about three years, she has also been involved in online business, which has gained significant success.

She added most of her products were Afghan clothing and jewellery made by women. Since starting her online business, her customer base has increased, with orders coming from abroad.

Hafizi stated she showcased her products through social media platforms like Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram.

She shared the benefits of online business, saying, “Currently, our work has become a bit easier, and our sales have risen. Now, we receive online orders from the United States, Germany, and Canada.”

She also discussed the quality of her products, saying, “We always send the same high-quality products that we showcase on our page. We never offer low-quality products, and encourage other online shops to use quality products and send them to customers.”

Hafizi argued selling low-quality products to customers would harm their businesses and people would lose trust in their work.

Khadija Mohammadi, executive director of AWCCI, also spoke about the growing trend of online businesses among women. “Sales in the domestic market are not high, so women are forced to turn to online businesses to sell their products outside Afghanistan as well.”

She added the Chamber had made significant efforts to encourage female entrepreneurs to engage in online businesses.

According to her, around 65 percent of female entrepreneurs in the country also run online businesses.

The women are engaged in sectors such as handicrafts, jewellery, food processing, dried fruits, and hijab designs in their online businesses. They promote their products on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok, with some even conducting businesses through official websites.

Mohammadi said one of the main challenges women faced in online business was a lack of knowledge about it, but the Chamber had been working to provide arrange programmes for them.

She explained over the past two years, 11 training workshops on online business had been conducted for female entrepreneurs by the Chamber.

In the past year, she recalled, business licences had been distributed to 100 women — working both online and in person.

She said: “Indubitably, online businesses are beneficial because they currently don’t have enough sales in the domestic market, and women entrepreneurs have not reached their goals. Therefore, they must work outside the country.”

Economist Abdul Nasir Reshtia called online businesses a good opportunity for women who were not allowed to work outside their homes.

He commented: “Fortunately, online business has lately been booming in Afghanistan, where most women can earn a steady income through this channel, although many challenges and problems still exist.”

He emphasised the need to encourage women in this sector by providing them with necessary training and financial support in case of need.

He continued, “On the other hand, they still have not been able to build trust and attract customers. If they want their business to grow and be trusted by people, they need to learn digital skills to manage their businesses in a more efficient way.”